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Climate 2014 – and Hell Froze over !

27 Jan

There is a point in life where almost all of us have tried our hand on painting a picture. Be it in school or a fair ground. And still life is one of the most enduring subject which every aspiring artist wants to capture and every great master has perfected.

But all pale by comparison when the Grand Master, mother Nature herself creates a still life…. it surpasses everything man can ever hope to achieve.

The Telegraph picture has been able to capture the beauty of this rare phenomenon. But what it has not been able to capture is the powerful message it sends across…Nature if she choose to, can make any life come to a stand still…forever.

And that is the take away from this for the Climate Change skeptics and the politicians and businessmen who are doing Real Politick in Davos once again ! Be it by omission or presence, the world business suddenly is not finding climate change a hot enough subject to discuss anymore.

Global warming !! When Hell itself is freezing over ?

 Hell frozen over as US big freeze shatters temperature records –In one small town in Michigan the snow was so deep a snow plough got stuck. What makes it noteworthy is that the place is named Hell. The 600 residents had to endure temperatures of minus 20 degrees. Forecasters predict an improvement but at the moment it’s so bad that Hell has literally frozen over.

Surely this has nothing to do with Global Warming, one could argue. And to be fair one can not attribute such conditions as affects of Global Warming with complete certainty….yet!

But if one reads the AR-5 report of the IPCC  it would seem that the computation that have been done on Climate Models have been fairly accurate. And evidence is slowly pointing towards the rampant destruction of the environment with our high carbon life-style as one of the primary reason for the discomfort we are facing with much more regularity than ever before.

And to prove that the phenomena is not restricted one must look at what is happening on the other side of the Atlantic….

First floods, then the snow: Warning as big freeze set to add to rain woe

As heavy rain continued to batter parts of Britain, forecasters said temperatures could plummet as low as -2C (28.4F). The midlands and the north are set to be the worst hit on Sunday and the cold snap could carry on into next week.‘There may be ice, with a chance of snow, particularly in the north of England and Scotland,’ the Met Office told Metro. There are fears that excess rainwater, which is still draining into rivers, will combine with further wet weather to ‘top up’ flood waters. Dozens of homes have been evacuated in Oxford amid further downpours. In nearby South Hinksey, water 1.2m (4ft) deep gushed into at least six homes. Resident Chris Jankiewicz has been trying to protect his property with sandbags. ‘The water is up to my thighs in places. The best way to get around is in a big pair of waders – or a canoe,’ the 45-year-old said. ‘I’ve lived here about 20 years and this is the worst I’ve seen it.’

….and beyond !

City saw Three Seasons in last Six days – Friday 25 Jan Times of India.

Mumbai: Within a span of six days, weather in the city has spanned three seasons. On January 18, Mumbai witnessed the coldest day of the season as temperature dipped to 13.2 degrees C followed by a round of showers on January 21, but simultaneously, temperature rose by 3-4 degrees over the normal average prompting people to shrug off their woolens. “By January 19-20, a trough developed over Arabian Sea causing clouding and rain on January 21.Mumbai,Dahanu and parts of Maharashtra received light showers, while Gujarat saw widespread rain. By then minimum and maximum temperatures had increased by 3-4 degrees,” said K S Hosalikar, deputy director general,IMD,Mumbai. He said the rise in temperatures has halted and a small reversal had occurred. “The temperature has reduced to 2 degrees above normal, and will remain within the normal value over the next few days. There is no likelihood of rain in the immediate future.” On Friday, minimum temperature in Santa Cruz and Colaba was around 19.8 and 21 degrees C respectively, even as the maximum touched30degreesCin Colaba.

AR1Climate Change is a natural process. Anthropogenic Global Warming is not. By accelerating the process which is a complex mix of Air, Water, Land, and the various features inherent in these is extremely dangerous. And the most worrying part is even if we do come to know how the system functions, which has achieved a perfect balance so as to sustain life-form over many millennia. Do we really have the understanding to fix it before it is too late?

To understand the gravity of the situation readers must understand the complexity of Earth and how it functions. This can be understood by Climate modeling which started in the mid 1970’s and had a very basic understanding and computational facilities to predict the anthropogenic effects on Climate Change.

AR2But as technology developed, so did the understanding and capacity of the scientists to add more aspects into the model.

This gave us some understanding of how the earth reacts with the elements. Climate modelling also led us to understand and appreciate that just as in life, in nature too there is no clear black and white. Thing are always a subset of another while retaining a distinct character at the same time. For example if we have a hot day, there would be higher water evaporation, which leads to more cloud formation. Clouds in turn blocks the sun and thus brings down the temperature which in turns reduces evaporation which in turn reduces formation of clouds.

AR3From understanding how clouds and rainfall reacts to warming in time we started to understand the role of the ocean in a little more depth, but much is still unknown.

By the Fourth Assessment Report or AR4 it was understood that the chemical reactions that are taking place due to emissions of human induced (anthropogenic)  warming caused by pollutants which are reacting with the natural process to throw up an altogether different variable. While much more needs to be understood and studied, the recent AR5  is out and is giving us much more answers with greater certainty than before.

Still much more work needs to be done until we can accurately predict the changes which are taking place, well in advance so AR4as to steer the World into proper mitigation and adaptation actions.

But to compute the total earth using all the variables require more than the few Peta-flops of computing we presently are able to achieve. And the most complex factor is of human actions in terms of mitigation and adaptations which have been taking place since the warnings have been put in place and running parallel to the pollution which we are creating.

What would be the sum total between the rate of pollution which no doubt is higher than the mitigation actions ? Can we accurately predict our daily weather conditions? Or we shall have to be ever on our toes to face the challenges of freak weather, as is evident from Thypoon Hyan to the great Freeze that has gripped the USA ?

While that is a debate we all need to get involved. Why it should be so must be pondered from the facts which is presenting itself. Which on a closer look would show that it is an economic disaster slowly unfolding and compounding the already fragile health of the World Economy !

Jan 26 (Reuters) – A shortage of propane heating fuel during a brutal U.S. cold snap this month threatens to sharpen the year’s most urgent energy policy debate – how much of its newfound shale oil and gas bounty should America export? …..U.S. propane production has grown in recent years thanks to the shale oil and gas boom, but the resulting higher supplies have caused domestic prices to sink below global levels. That in turn, has encouraged exports of the fuel from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Japan and Latin America, where prices are higher.The shortage in the Midwest comes at a confluence of events: namely, record-breaking cold at the start of January, when stocks were already low after large amounts of propane were used to dry out a bumper corn harvest.A pipeline outage during most of December exacerbated the situation, and this week’s freezing weather, expected to last to the end of the month, has heightened the situation. All the while prices have soared.

Unrelenting Winter Weather Sends U.S. Into Deep Freeze – ….Sheets of ice on bridges and overpasses made for a treacherous commute Friday morning in San Antonio and Houston, Tex. and as far east as Lake Charles, La., The Weather Channel reports. Ice and some snow are expected to build up in some areas, though authorities don’t anticipate extensive power outages.

Bad weather events almost always brings to stand-still the high-carbon modern life-style we all live. It not only impacts ones daily life but also has an inherent sociopolitical threat at a Global scale. If one reads the two news items above, it is apparent that energy security which is always a flashpoint in World affairs is directly affected. Should the spell of extreme weather events continue with more and more severity which is what the IPCC AR5 predicts as very much likely, world peace would be under tremendous strain.

For the common man it is not easy to understand that his/her difficulty to commute or warm his home or feed himself and family, if prolonged can lead to War ! But that is the reality of Climate Change. And that is why it of utmost importance that each and every individual and organization wise up to the facts of impacts of Global Warming!

If we don’t we may have to pay Hell….as the Americans say!

 

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